Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
